Software Engineering Institute

The Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE) workshop enables a client to convene a set of domain experts to formulate early lifecycle cost estimates expressed as cost distributions rather than single points. The QUELCE method involves a five-step process that begins with identifying potential future changes to nominal program execution that will influence program cost. This is followed by probabilistic modeling of the interrelationships of the program change drivers and Monte Carlo simulation of cost model inputs to create program cost estimate distributions. Because many of the inputs are based on subject-matter expert judgment, this workshop also involves a novel approach to calibrating expert judgment through a series of training exercises.