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A Dynamic Model of Sustainment Investment

February 2015 Technical Report
Sarah Sheard, Robert Ferguson, Andrew P. Moore, Mike Phillips

This paper describes a dynamic sustainment model that shows how budgeting, allocation of resources, mission performance, and strategic planning are interrelated and how they affect each other over time.

Publisher:

Software Engineering Institute

CMU/SEI Report Number

CMU/SEI-2015-TR-003

Abstract

This paper describes a dynamic sustainment model that shows how budgeting, allocation of resources, mission performance, and strategic planning are interrelated and how they affect each other over time. Each of these processes is owned by a different stakeholder, so a decision made by one stakeholder might affect performance in a different organization. Worse, delaying a decision to fund some work might result in much longer delays and much greater costs to several of the organizations.

The SEI developed and calibrated a systems dynamic model that shows interactions of various stakeholders over time and the results of four realistic scenarios. The current model has been calibrated with data from the F/A-18 and EA-18G Advanced Weapons Lab (AWL) at China Lake, CA.

The model makes it possible for a decision maker to study different decision scenarios and interpret the likely effects on other stakeholders in acquisition. In a scenario where sustainment infrastructure investment is shortchanged over a period of time, the tipping point phenomenon is shown in the results of the calibrated model.