Software Engineering Institute | Carnegie Mellon University
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Debra Anderson
December 2011 - Technical Report Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE)

Topics: Measurement and Analysis

Authors: Robert Ferguson, Dennis Goldenson, James McCurley, Robert W. Stoddard, David Zubrow, Debra Anderson

The method of quantifying uncertainty described in this report synthesizes scenario building, Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling and Monte Carlo simulation into an estimation method that quantifies uncertainties, allows subjective inputs, visually depicts influential relationships among program change drivers and outputs, and assists with the explicit description and documentation underlying an estimate.