Software Engineering Institute | Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute | Carnegie Mellon University

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Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE)

  • October 2013
  • A Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE) workshop convenes domain experts to formulate early life-cycle cost estimates. The workshop takes a novel approach to calibrating expert judgment through a series of training exercises.
  • Measurement and Analysis
  • Publisher: Software Engineering Institute
  • Abstract

    The Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE) workshop enables a client to convene a set of domain experts to formulate early life-cycle cost estimates expressed as cost distributions rather than single points. The QUELCE method uses a five-step process that begins with identifying potential future changes to nominal program execution that will influence program cost. This is followed by probabilistic modeling of the interrelationships of the program change drivers and Monte Carlo simulation of cost model inputs to create program cost estimate distributions. Because many of the inputs are based on subject-matter expert judgment, this workshop also takes a novel approach to calibrating expert judgment through a series of training exercises.



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